传统能源及碳交易价格与新能源股价——基于VAR和CAPM-GARCH模型的分析

文章构建VAR模型和CAPM-GARCH模型,分析检验了2010年7月初至2013年底期间传统能源和碳排放权交易价格对国内新能源上市公司股价波动的影响及新能源股票收益率的波动特点,研究发现:国内煤价对新能源公司股价有显著的正向影响,而国际油价的影响不显著;碳排放权交易价格也是引起新能源投资价值从而上市公司股价变动的重要因素;新能源公司股价指数对高科技股价指数并不敏感,反映出国内新能源上市公司科技含量不足,资本市场关注更多的是新能源的概念而非技术优势;国内新能源股票整体的系统风险在1.125~1.131之间,利好消息比利空消息能引起新能源股票收益率更大的波动。     

The market microstructure of the European climate exchange

This paper analyzes the market microstructure of the European Climate Exchange, the largest EU ETS trading venue. The ECX captures 2/3 of the screen traded market in EUA and more than 90% in CER. Volume growth has averaged 277% in EUA between 2005 and 2009 and 724% in CER since 2007. Spreads range from €0.0188 to €0.0406 for EUA and €0.0276 to €0.0796 for CER. The median proportion of the spread due to adverse selection reaches 76% for EUA and 75% for CER. Realized volatility, bid-ask spreads and adverse selection costs decline with verified emission releases. Market impact estimates imply that an average trade will move the EUA market by 1.06 euro centimes and the CER market 1.45. The ECX is providing between 75% and 88% of price discovery for EUA trading and between 64% and 72% for CER. We find imbalances in the order book help predict returns for up to three days. A simple trading strategy that enters the market long or short when the order imbalance is strong is profitable even after accounting for spreads and market impact.     

Voluntary disclosure,greenhouse gas emissions and business performance: Assessing the first decade of reporting

This study explores the empirical relationships between GHG emissions and an extensive range of business performance measures for UK FTSE-350 listed firms over the first decade or so of such reporting. Despite the popular and policy generated environmental imperatives over this period—along with growing evidence of the corporate added-value of having an ‘environmental conscience’, voluntary disclosure of emissions has been slow to adopt by firms. The leading contribution is to present clear evidence of a non-linear relationship, initially increasing with firm performance and then decreasing. An extensive pattern of non-reporting of emissions is also observed over time, and prior literature has introduced questions of endogeneity existing between firm performance and emissions. Steps are taken to ensure confidence/robustness of the results to these concerns. Accordingly, a two-stage (Heckman-type) selection model is used to analyse the emissions-performance nexus conditional upon the firm choosing to report (i.e. treating the choice to report as being endogenously determined with firm performance). From this—in addition to confirming the robustness of the non-linear relationship—it can be observed that the decision to report emissions is not directly influenced by wider social/governance disclosure attitudes of a firm, thus suggesting that firms disassociate environmental responsibility from social responsibility.     

Structural production layer decomposition: a new method to measure differences between MRIO databases for footprint assessments

Recent empirical assessments revealed that footprint indicators calculated with various multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases deliver deviating results. In this paper, we propose a new method, called structural production layer decomposition (SPLD), which complements existing structural decomposition approaches. SPLD enables differentiating between effects stemming from specific parts in the technology matrix, e.g. trade blocks vs. domestic blocks, while still allowing to link the various effects to the total region footprint. Using the carbon footprint of the EU-28 in 2011 as an example, we analyse the differences between EXIOBASE, Eora, GTAP and WIOD. Identical environmental data are used across all MRIO databases. In all model comparisons, variations in domestic blocks have a more significant impact on the carbon footprint than variations in trade blocks. The results provide a wealth of information for MRIO developers and are relevant for policy makers designing climate policy measures targeted to specific stages along product supply chains.     

创业投资企业优惠政策的思考

本公司位于高新技术产业开发区,是一家具有一般纳税人资格的生产销售企业,由公司出资设立一家创业投资企业,公司100%控股;收购公司持有的GN公司30%和JX公司31.82%的股份,而GN公司为高新技术企业且未上市;有效的运用我国执行的创业投资企业税收优惠政策:创业投资公司投资于未上市中小高新技术企业2年以上(含2年),可按其对中小高新技术企业投资额的70%抵扣该创业投资企业的应纳税所得额;符合条件的居民企业之间的股息、红利等权益性投资收益为免税收入;可以增加公司的税后收益。取得降低公司整体税负的效果。     

纳税筹划中出现问题的原因及对策

纳税筹划自产生以来越来越多地在涉税业务中应用,可筹划的结果却有喜有忧。许多在使用初期被看作十分成功的案例却在业务发生后的数年间变成了反面教材,不但没有达到节税的目的反而给企业带来经济损失。文章分析了纳税筹划失败的原因并提出了合理规划。     

“营改增”试点过程中相关问题思考

"营改增"经历了几年的试点,对我国税收体制改革、产业与企业结构调整起到了积极的影响作用。但改革过程中,部分企业中出现了和改革的初衷相背离的情况,本文分析了引起这种现象的原因,并分析了"营改增"与两税并征相比的进步之处。同时,又对随着试点范围扩展到全国,"营改增"在具体实践过程中需要解决的问题提出了几点建议。     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

组合式房产税改革的宏观经济效应 ——兼顾居民用房与商业用房的DSGE框架分析

本文通过构建包含房产税的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）框架，兼顾居民用房与商业用房，模拟分析房产税改革对主要宏观经济变量的影响。研究结果表明：（1）提高居民用房房产税税率对总消费、投资、房价和总产出等变量的均衡值和波动均以负面影响为主，但会降低社会福利损失；（2）降低商业用房房产税税率对总消费、投资、房价和总产出等变量的均衡值和波动均以正面影响为主，但会提高社会福利损失；（3）提高居民用房房产税税率与降低商业用房房产税税率同时实施时，不仅能够对冲居民用房房产税改革对宏观经济的负面影响，尤其是能够有效对冲改革对投资和总产出的负面影响，还会降低社会福利损失。因此，中国下一步试点改革应当重点关注组合式改革方案。     

中国碳金融发展:决定于经济还是环境?——基于结构方程模型

气候变化为全球带来严峻考验,碳金融是对气候变化的有效应对,碳金融的发展在我国究竟决定于经济还是环境?采用结构方程模型对碳金融发展的影响因素做出实证分析。结果表明:现阶段我国的经济因素和居民因素对碳金融发展有抑制作用;居民因素在经济因素对碳金融发展影响的路径中起到中介作用,对环境因素产生负效应;环境因素与碳金融发展存在互惠关系,在碳金融发展中起突出作用。最后从科学顶层设计、依法治理,推动低碳经济产业的优化,强化居民、企业环保意识,加强污染防治与生态建设等方面给出建议。